New Census numbers show an alarming trend in Virginia. More people are leaving the commonwealth to go to other states than people are arriving here from other states. As Michael Pope reports, it’s a phenomenon known as outmigration.
A block from the Ballston Metro station in Arlington, buses idle along street corners and food trucks linger outside partially deserted office buildings. This neighborhood is not what it once was. And you can tell by all the "space available" signs, like the one the one hanging in the windows of what used to be the Willow restaurant.
“And then this here is the old Willow, right?"
“It is. That’s a lost icon. We miss that here in Arlington. It was a fine restaurant, and we certainly feel the loss from the restaurant side as well as the streetscape side.”
That’s Michael Foster, a commercial property owner and prominent architect here in Arlington. He’s talking about a restaurant that was forced to close because the office across the street closed — two symptoms of a larger problem for Arlington: eight million square feet of vacant office space.
“Whether or not we ever fill that eight million square feet is not likely. Some of it will get filled. Some of it will get re-purposed, and others will get redeveloped."
What’s happening here in Arlington is part of a larger story that’s happening across Virginia. New Census numbers show more people are moving from Virginia to other states than people from other states are moving here. It’s a phenomenon people in the academic world call domestic outmigration. This year marks the third consecutive year of outmigration in Virginia, a new and unprecedented milestone. Hamilton Lombard at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service says the trend is largely driven by Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia.
“I wouldn’t say what we are seeing with Hampton Roads is entirely new, but Northern Virginia is a much larger region, and we haven’t seen anything like that recently, and that’s what’s tipped the balance and pushed people out of the state.”
Take Fairfax County for example. Lombard says a few years ago, people leaving Fairfax County might move to nearby Clarke County or Frederick County.
“Now they're leaving the state altogether, and so you’re not having as much growth there. And those people instead of leaving Fairfax going to Clarke or Frederick are going to places like Charlotte or Houston.”
Jeanette Chapman at George Mason University says the main reason Virginia is losing residents to other states is the lack of jobs. She points out that between 2011 and 2014, Virginia fell from 17th in job growth to 49th in job growth.
“Which is a huge decrease in such a short amount of time, and so that also seems to have correlated with when the domestic outmigration started to occur. The first year for negative outmigration was 2014.”
But here’s the kicker: despite outmigration, Virginia’s population is increasing. That’s because even though the state is losing people to Florida and Texas, immigrants keep arriving here from places like China and India.
“While Virginia has lost residents to elsewhere within the U.S., on a net basis it’s actually gained in more than that loss from international migration. And so the total migration numbers are still positive.”
On the playground of Freedom Hill Elementary School in Tysons Corner, those numbers about international migration aren’t just statistics. State Delegate Mark Keam points to a woman wearing a hijab walking with a group of school kids.
“Every single one of the kids that she’s with, maybe five or six or seven year old kids are Arab American or Asian American. I don’t see any blond kids here, and not to say that’s an indication in any way. But the fact that we are seeing a generational divide I think is a part of the story.”
Keam says he’s seen a dramatic shift in this neighborhood since he first ran for office back in 2009. While campaigning for Hillary Clinton last year, he noticed several blocks where every house had an immigrant family.
“It’s amazing. There are streets where I would go knock on doors literally door to door to door to door and I would run into just about everybody from the same ethnic background, whether they are from the middle east or from east Asia or south Asia.”
So will this trend continue? Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University says that might depend on the federal budget.
“If President Trump really does increase the defense budget by $54 billion, which is what he’s proposed we may see this outmigration pattern reverse itself within a year or two.”
Whatever the reason for outmigration, it’s a trend that’s become increasingly alarming. Nobody wants to live in a state in decline. Experts say the only way to bring people back is also the most obvious: Bring new jobs and the people will follow.