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Predicting Which Kids Will Get Heart Disease and Diabetes

University of Virginia

You’ve probably heard the old joke – if I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.  Now, doctors at the University of Virginia have developed a test that can predict which kids are most likely to develop heart disease or diabetes.  Sandy Hausman has that story.

Every year, more than 600,000 people die from heart disease in this country, and cardiovascular problems are often preceded by type II diabetes. Now, a team led by Dr. Mark DeBoer, a pediatric endocrinologist at the University of Virginia, says it’s possible to predict which children will develop those medical problems.  The calculation involves five conditions that, together, comprise something called metabolic syndrome.

“Things like a high body mass index, a high fasting glucose, a high fasting triglycerides, low HDL cholesterol – that’s the good cholesterol – and high blood pressure.”

DeBoer and his colleagues studied 700 patients – going back 40 years to evaluate their medical records as kids.  Based on those five factors, each was given a score, and those with the highest Metabollic Syndrome Severity Score did, in fact, develop cardiovascular disease and diabetes. 

“The roots of type II diabetes and cardiovascular disease start in childhood in many individuals, and by identifying children who are at risk, we can start turning this around while there’s still more time to be able to make the changes.”

That means getting regular exercise, avoiding saturated fats, eating more fruits and vegetables and a few more modifications especially relevant to teens.

“Getting more sleep is actually important in being able to avoid unhealthy weight gain.  Watching less television or having less sedentary time when you’re not moving at all.”

DeBoer notes, with some concern, that the patient population he studied came of age well before the nation experienced its current epidemic of childhood obesity.

“I would hypothesize that we have a lot more risk ahead of us than.”

The research has been described in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, and you can calculate your  metabolic syndrome severity score or the scores of your kids by going to:

http://publichealth.hsc.wvu.edu/biostatistics/metabolic-syndrome-severity-calculator/mets-severity-calculator/