Based on the latest Quinnipiac Poll, if the election for Virginia Governor were held today, Democrat Terry McAuliffe would beat Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli by a significant margin.
The spread itself isn't different from the last Quinnipiac poll. But the survey contained the revelation that if most supporters of Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis changed their minds, the shift would not fall in Cuccinelli's favor.
McAuliffe still holds a seven-point lead over Cuccinelli, while Sarvis is still polling at 10-percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown says that’s the wild card.
Brown says if Sarvis continues to trail at a distant third, those supporters may decide not to throw their vote away.
The poll says McAuliffe is winning women by double digits and is only slightly behind among men. But Brown says what's unique is the difference between the leading candidates' partisan bases.
Finally, Brown says someone is going to be elected Governor, but not because people like them. Voters say the campaign has been negative. Brown says in the end, that could result in lower voter turnout