Voters are deciding which party will run the Virginia Senate for the next four years. Republicans hold a 21-to-19 majority but Democrats can take control by gaining one seat since they have the tiebreaking vote in the person of Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam.
With Republicans likely to maintain a large majority in the House of Delegates and Democrat Terry McAuliffe sitting in the governor's mansion today's outcome in the senate will have enormous implications for the direction of state government in the immediate future.
You've heard the campaign ads, the debates, the speeches, education issues, classroom sizes, economic development is the key, the Second Amendment, new job opportunities, making college more affordable, the balance of power in the Senate, and making certain every child has an opportunity to succeed...
The question now is which side will have the upper hand in tackling those issues and a host of others. Virginia Tech political scientist Karen Hult says the stakes are especially high Governor Terry McAuliffe, for whom a Senate controlled by Democrats would provide much greater political leverage during the next two years.
“He's thinking of the Senate as both a firewall to help protect him from a Republican House of Delegates that has been quite clear in making opposition to the governor's initiatives a part of its agenda, but it's also a negotiating platform should the Democrats be able to get at least tied control in the Senate they'll be in a better position to help the governor negotiate a while range of issues from Medicaid to possible budget cuts to environmental issues as well as others”
But all the talk of Democrats gaining a seat could come to nothing if they can't hold the seats they already have. Hult sees some potential trouble spots.
“District 21 with John Edwards seat. He's had some vigorous competition from Nancy Dye, also an independent Donald Caldwell who I think is in a position to take away some of Edwards' votes.”
This is a case where the challenger – Dye – has raised more money than the incumbent including 175-thousand dollars from out-of-state Republicans. She's also getting an assist from outside the campaign.
“She's also getting some perhaps unexpected help from Americans for Prosperity targeting Edwards as one of the only candidates in Virginia they're targeting.”
Then there's the 6th District on the Eastern Shore where Republican Richard Ottinger hopes to unseat Democrat Lynwood Lewis. Lewis won the seat in a special election two years ago....by eleven votes.
“Landslide Lynwood, I guess we can call him now but that looks like quite a likely possibility on the Republican side. The money is roughly even but it's enough so that both can run a pretty good campaign. And as always in these kinds of elections the key is getting the voter turnout.”
Perhaps the highest profile races are in Districts 10 and 29 where two veteran senators – one from each party – are retiring. Republican John Watkins is stepping down in District 10, that's in the Richmond area. Democrat Charles Colgan is giving up the District 29 seat in Prince William County. Hult thinks either or both could flip.
“It seems to me that the higher likelihood is in 10, Johns Watkins' seat because that tends to be a district that looks as though it's more likely to lean Democratic. At the same time the concern for Democrats has to be getting turnout.
The District 10 race may be the most expensive of the year. Democrat Dan Gecker has raised $1.2 million dollars and Republican Glen Sturtevant has brought in more than $750,000. And the Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund is spending $700,000 on ads supporting stronger gun control laws.
In District 29 Democrats run very well in presidential elections, but....
“Whether the Democrats can keep Charles Colgan's seat is an interesting question. This could flip the other way since the Republican candidate is a popular mayor of Manassas Hal Parish.”
Parish is opposed by Democrat Jeremy McPike who lost a run for the House of Delegates by one point in 2013.
One reason so much is riding on so few races in the Senate – and control of the House is not even in question – is that again very few districts are competitive.
“This year on the senate side 23 of the districts are in fact contested. That leaves 17 that are not and of those 23 very few of them are actually competitive. Why does this happen? Part of the answer has to be the redistricting that is controlled by the majority party. That has not changed no matter who is in control of the legislature.”
And that could well be a contributing factor to another constant in General Assembly-only elections, low turnout. Usually about a third of registered voters participate.
